Avastars ‘Unique By’ Ranking

Image for post
Image for post

BACKGROUND

As a quick recap of the project — Avastars are tokenized avatars which exist on the Ethereum blockchain, and notably they store all of the artwork on the blockchain itself. So compared to other projects where the art sits on a server somewhere, while the token is only a reference ID, Avastars are groundbreaking in the ‘art-on-chain’ movement.

RANDOMLY GENERATED GOODNESS

Image for post
Image for post
Randomly generated gallery via http://arp.lenz.gr/

ON RARITY AND SELF-SELECTION

That becomes a difficult question to answer when you look at how the population of minted Avastars came into being.

First, you have the probability of certain traits appearing. So the probability of getting at least 1 legendary trait is about 3% or 1 in 34. But the odds of getting 4 legendary traits is roughly 0.000002% or 1 in 53 million (I’m not going deep on the math in this post.)

As a rough measure, you’d expect the population of Avastar traits to mirror the likelihood of finding them, and they do– but the results are also biased by the x-factor of how collectors are choosing to mint them.

For the most part, collectors are scanning for traits that appeal to them in some way. So if a legendary skin tone, such as Zombie is popular — it will over-index on how many you’ll find in the final minted population.

Image for post
Image for post

In fact, just browsing on OpenSea you will find that Zombie is the 5th most popular skin tone. If the Avastars were being randomly minted as generated you’d expect to see many more with the skin tone Mellow Apricot or Brown Sugar, which are Uncommon traits and should appear 90x more often than Legendary traits.

So– the rarity of Avastars is dynamic and changes according to the self-selection of the collectors.

TOWARDS A ‘UNIQUE BY’ RANKING

Anecdotally you would hear people say things like “This is the only Avastar with Zombie skin and Bright Pink eyes.”

Image for post
Image for post
Currently the only Avastar with Zombie skin and Bright Pink eyes.

And it seemed like it’s more rare a collectible when there are only a few of them, or if it’s unique.

All Avastars are unique if you look at all 12 traits but it seemed like if you could establish the minimum number of traits to establish the uniqueness of an Avastar, that could be useful.

INTRODUCING — ‘UNIQUE BY’

To further differentiate how unique a UB2 is compared to other UB2’s — I looked at two factors. First, what are the odds that someone else could find this exact UB2?

In the example above, since this Avastar is unique by 2 traits, both Legendary, it should hold its UB2 status longer than a UB2 comprised of a Rare and Uncommon trait. Meaning there’s (very roughly) a 1 in 640,000 chance that someone else will find a Zombie with Bright Pink eyes in a future series.

But compare the above UB2 with this UB2

Image for post
Image for post
Unique by 2 traits — Silver Grill mouth and Citrine eyes.

This is only unique by 2 Rare traits. So it’s closer to a 1 in 256 chance that someone else could find this combo. Chances are it only exists as a UB2 because no one else wanted to mint that specific combo yet. It will probably settle as a UB3 or a UB4 when all 25,200 Avastars have been minted after series 5 ends.

UNTIL THE DUST SETTLES

BUT EVERYONE LOVES LEAGUE TABLES

And according to that, the Most Unique Avastar distinction goes to this one:

Image for post
Image for post
UB2 — Face 10, Lavender Rose skin

No surprise that Avastar #0 is the most unique. Hopefully this validates the approach though.

Image for post
Image for post
Top 10

The Top 10 is biased towards Founders & Exclusives because those may draw from unavailable traits from future series, and will also contain more legendaries than prime Avastars.

… the Least Unique Avastar is:

Image for post
Image for post
UB6 — which is perhaps so common that it’s rare?

And the Bottom 10

Image for post
Image for post

Feel free to comb through the results in this spreadsheet:

Avastar Unique By (UB) Scores

Consider this an Open Source metric — I’m open to suggestions to improve it. Find me on the Discord channel.

Written by

Experience Design at Netflix • Follow @kaigani

Get the Medium app

A button that says 'Download on the App Store', and if clicked it will lead you to the iOS App store
A button that says 'Get it on, Google Play', and if clicked it will lead you to the Google Play store